Reflections on the Capture of Saddam Hussein

A nightmare has ended. He will be tried, and two nations' dirty laundry will be exposed, the only basis on which all can go forward towards a new Persian Gulf and a new relationship with the West.

What is the significance of the capture of Saddam for contemporary Iraqi politics? He was probably already irrelevant.

The Sunni Arab resisters to US occupation in the country's heartland had long since jettisoned Saddam and the Baath as symbols. (See "Sunnis gear up" below.) They are fighting for local reasons. Some are Sunni fundamentalists, who despised the Baath. Others are Arab nationalists who weep at the idea of their country being occupied. Some had relatives killed or humiliated by US troops and are pursuing a clan vendetta. Some fear a Shiite and Kurdish-dominated Iraq will reduce them to second class citizens. They will fight on, as Mr. Bush admitted today.

My wife, Shahin Cole, suggested to me an ironic possibility with regard to the Shiites. She said that many Shiites in East Baghdad, Basra, and elsewhere may have been timid about opposing the US presence, because they feared the return of Saddam. Saddam was in their nightmares, and the reprisals of the Fedayee Saddam are still a factor in Iraqi politics. Now that it is perfectly clear that he is finished, she suggested, the Shiites may be emboldened. Those who dislike US policies or who are opposed to the idea of occupation no longer need be apprehensive that the US will suddenly leave and allow Saddam to come back to power. They may therefore now gradually throw off their political timidity, and come out more forcefully into the streets when they disagree with the US. As with many of her insights, this one seems to me likely correct.
[more]

In Iraq's Sunni heartland, rebels have a new cause
They're against Saddam and occupiers
But the real fear is rising Shiite power
  thanks to Juan Cole

U.S. Plans Massive Rotation of Troops
The meticulously organized transfer in Iraq and elsewhere may increase vulnerability.
  thanks to Politics in the Zeros

The Empire Strikes Out: Scott Taylor Reports From Iraq
  thanks to Cursor

US and British occupation of Iraq will end by July, says Blair's envoy

Saddam's Labor Laws Live On
  thanks to Badattitudes Journal

America's most wanted (book, that is)

It's Iraq. The Sunnis, Shias and Kurds are at each other's throats, only cooperating long enough to attack the foreign army that is occupying their country. The army is tasked with nation-building, and is running into serious difficulty. The man in charge is... no, not America's Paul Bremer, but General Sir Aylmer Haldane. The year is 1920.

Published in 1922, Haldane's book, Insurrection in Mesopotamia 1920, long ago vanished into the dusty fastnesses of antiquarian booksellers. But not any more. We hear that Sir Aylmer is required reading in Washington these days. Evidently, the Pentagon and state department are snapping up all available copies - the price on the web has hit $250 and is rising. Why?

Iraq (or Mesopotamia, as it then was) is a totally artificial country. One glance at the map tells you that its borders were fixed using the BOGSAT technique (bunch of guys sitting around a table) at the Versailles peace conference in 1919. It is a technique that often causes ethnic problems and Iraq was no exception. The Brits took on the responsibility for making the whole ramshackle set-up work properly, and Sir Aylmer ended up as the man in charge. Yet even against violent opposition he did succeed in building a viable nation that lasted a generation - from 1920 to the revolution in 1958.

Washington wants to know how he did it. I'd like to know too. I'm fortunate to live in a town with many excellent antiquarian bookshops. But can I find an affordable copy of Insurrection? Not a hope. A friend lends me his. Wow, talk about deja vu all over again - to use Yogi Berra's famous aphorism. What is the main lesson?

At the end of his book Sir Aylmer says: "I regret that on my arrival in Mesopotamia I was too much occupied with military matters, and too ill-informed regarding the political problem." Not hard to see why Rummy wants his own copy.

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