Sorry, but there is no eye candy today. I'm afraid the last few days have been focused on Iraq. If you haven't been focused on Iraq the last few days, you don't understand how serious the situation is. The occupation has been successful, and I use that term very loosely, because the Iraqis, by and large, have gone along with the program. If there is a tipping point and 26 million Iraqis decide that 150,000 foreign troops aren't going tell them how to run their lives anymore, well, there isn't much the foreigners, that's us, can do.

The question is: Are we at that tipping point? Our military has no equal when it comes to set piece battles and toppling governments. That is not what it is now up against. This misadventure has had its proponents and opponents use analogies to other wars. BushCo likes to hold up Pearl Harbor and WWII. Opponents have looked at how easy the world slid into a world war during WWI. Here is another war we can look at, as mentioned in a link below: the American Revolution. A people's war. And these people are heavily armed.

Israeli tactics aren't going to work against the Iraqis. Tanks aren't going to work against people willing to throw themselves under the tracks. How desperate and how stupid are our fearful leaders? How bad can this get? What happens if the Marines can't control Fallujah? What happens if the Coalition can't retake the holy city of Najaf? If this becomes a religious war, and the CPA seems to be doing everything it can to make it one, what chances do 150,000 coalition troops have? If this people's war pushes the CPA troops back into their enclaves, will our fearful leaders go nuclear? Don't forget that there were many at high levels pushing for a nuclear option in Vietnam. How bad can this get?

There is the potential for us to have to pull out of Iraq. How bad can that be? There seems to be an assumption that, if we should decide to leave, that we will just put all our troops on the first flight out. Or the last flight out.

This isn't Vietnam where we had years to draw down our troops. This is happening much faster. The Pentagon is going to meet force with force until the end. This is where Gordy Coale's Third Law of Political Dynamics (with all apologies to Newton) comes in: For every action there MUST be an equal and opposite reaction. At this point Iraqis are willing to let the coalition troops withdraw. Their goal is to get the troops out of the country. If the Pentagon escalates the violence to a high enough level, the Iraqis will no longer be willing to let the troops withdraw. If the Pentagon escalates to a total destruction mode, so will the Iraqis. How bad can it get?

So, what happens if the coalition troops are surrounded in their enclaves in a hostile country, with their supply lines cut off? Lets look at another war where this happened.

Death of an Army

How bad can it get? The US Army will take heavy casualties if it has to withdraw under fire — if it escalates to that point. How many casualties will it take to destroy the Army? I don't think it will take that many. This is a volunteer army. How many would stay in after a debacle like that? Or is the Army already mortally wounded? And what happens if there are no reenlistments, when this is over? What happens when the world finds out we don't have a functioning army? How bad can this get?

On this happy note, let's take a look at how well things are going.

Where is Raed ?

Dear US administration, Welcome to the next level. Please don't act surprised and what sort of timing is that it: planning to go on a huge attack on the west of Iraq and provoking a group you know very well (I pray to god you knew) that they are trouble makers.

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by Salam Pax

Teapots and Kettles...
by Riverbend

Now it seems we are almost literally reliving the first few days of occupation… I woke up to the sound of explosions and gunfire last night and for one terrible moment I thought someone had warped me back a whole year and we would have to relive this last year of our life over and over again… We haven't sent the kids to school for 3 days. The atmosphere is charged and the day before yesterday, Baghdad was quiet and empty, almost… the calm before the storm. The area of A'adhamiya in Baghdad is seeing street fighting: the resistance and Americans are fighting out in the streets and Al-Sadr city was bombed by the troops. They say that dozens were killed and others wounded. They're bringing them in to hospitals in the center of the city. Falloojeh has been cut off from the rest of Iraq for the last three days. It's terrible. They've been bombing it constantly and there are dozens dead. Yesterday they said that the only functioning hospital in the city was hit by the Americans and there's no where to take the wounded except a meager clinic that can hold up to 10 patients at a time. There are over a hundred wounded and dying and there's nowhere to bury the dead because the Americans control the area surrounding the only graveyard in Falloojeh; the bodies are beginning to decompose in the April heat. The troops won't let anyone out of Falloojeh and they won't let anyone into it either- the people are going to go hungry in a matter of days because most of the fresh produce is brought from outside of the city. We've been trying to call a friend who lives there for three days and we can't contact him. [...] This is crazy. This is supposed to be punishment for violence but it's only going to result in more bloodshed on both sides… people are outraged everywhere- Sunnis and Shi'a alike. This constant bombing is only going to make things worse for everyone. Why do Americans think that people in Baghdad or the south or north aren’t going care what happens in Falloojeh or Ramadi or Nassriyah or Najaf? Would Americans in New York disregard bombing and killing in California? And now Muqtada Al-Sadr's people are also fighting it out in parts of Baghdad and the south. If the situation weren't so frightening, it would almost be amusing to see Al-Hakeem and Bahr Ul Iloom describe Al-Sadr as an 'extremist' and a 'threat'. Muqtada Al-Sadr is no better and no worse than several extremists we have sitting on the Governing Council. He's just as willing to ingratiate himself to Bremer as Al-Hakeem and Bahr Ul Iloom. The only difference is that he wasn't given the opportunity, so now he's a revolutionary. Apparently, someone didn't give Bremer the memo about how when you pander to one extremist, you have to pander to them all. Hearing Abdul Aziz Al-Hakeem and Bahr Ul Iloom claim that Al-Sadr is a threat to security and stability brings about visions of the teapot and the kettle… Then Bremer makes an appearance on tv and says that armed militias will *not* be a part of the New Iraq… where has that declaration been the last 12 months while Badir's Brigade has been wreaking havoc all over the country? Why not just solve the problem of Al-Sadr's armed militia by having them join the police force and army, like the Bayshmarga and Badir's Brigade?! Al-Sadr's militia is old news. No one was bothering them while they were terrorizing civilians in the south. They wore badges, carried Klashnikovs and roamed the streets freely… now that they've become a threat to the 'Coalition', they suddenly become 'terrorists' and 'agitators'. [...] And as I blog this, all the mosques, Sunni and Shi’a alike, are calling for Jihad...

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The Second Front: Multi-City Sadrist Uprising Continues

The difficulty the United States and its allies are having in regaining control of the major cities of the Shiite south is breathtaking in its implications. There is little doubt that they can prevail eventually in a military sense. But if the Sadrist uprising were a minor affair of a few thousand ragtag militiamen, it is difficult to understand how they could survive the onslaught of 150,000 well-armed and well-trained European and North American troops for more than a day. Rather, it is clear that urban crowds are supporting the uprising in some numbers. Even when the Coalition puts the uprising down, it may well incur the wrath of many persons who had earlier viewed it with favor. And if the US cannot control Iraq now, when it has its hands directly on all the levers of power, how will it do so in the coming year, as it loses its grip on those levers? The tired CPA refrain that lots of schools have been painted and the markets are bustling is shockingly inept even as propaganda. I lived in Beirut in the early years of the civil war there. I'd like to report that people shop during wars and heavy civil disturbances. The economy does not disappear in such situations. It is just that the value of currency drops, foreign investment dries up, and hoarding is widespread. People rush out to buy stocks in case there are curfews. Bustling bazaars mean nothing in themelves--they have to be interpreted in context. But major fighting in most Shiiite urban areas is unambiguous in its significance. It means that the Bush administration rule of Iraq is FUBAR. It seems inevitable to me that the US military will pursue a war to the death with the Army of the Mahdi, the Sadrist movement, and Muqtada al-Sadr himself. They will of course win this struggle on the surface and in the short term, because of their massive firepower. But the Sadrists will simply go underground and mount a longterm guerrilla insurgency similar to that in the Sunni areas. The United States has managed to create a failed state, similar to Somalia and Haiti, in Iraq. Let's look at the major battles on Tuesday:

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W's Iraq debacle unfolds

Baghdad Sunnis, Shi'ites unite

  thanks to Information Clearing House

Bloodbath a bad omen for coalition forces
by Robert Fisk

Reaping the Whirlwind
Iraq on the Brink of Anarchy
by Robert Fisk

US general Abizaid considers sending more troops to Iraq : CNN

  thanks to The Agonist

Coalition forces fight a losing battle to win the peace
With each twist of the spiral, it becomes more difficult to be optimistic for the future

The battle the US wants to provoke
by Naomi Klein in Baghdad

Uprising in Iraq could derail Bush
As US forces suffer another bloody day, Republicans turn on president

Christopher Layne: Deeper into the abyss

  thanks to Antiwar.com

Iraq: The “People’s War” is Just Beginning

  thanks to Antiwar.com

Pentagon delays U.S. troops' trip home

  thanks to BuzzFlash

Helping Bob...
...uncover Victoria's Secret
A Blogger's History of the Iraqi Occupation
by Mike Golby

"...a wave of anti-American rage so intense that it now extends not only to US troops, occupation officials and their contractors but also to foreign journalists, aid workers, their translators and pretty much anyone else associated with the Americans." Yeah, chew on that one. I wonder why? Mind you, anybody but the Americans can see these things. Just the other day, after the mercenary grill, I predicted the arrival of the cavalry. Today, some 1,200 Marines and two battalions of Iraqi security personnel are poised to enter Fallujah. The fool Bremer's declared al-Sadr an outlaw, American tanks have been squashing Iraqis in Baghdad, and Apache helicopters are hitting police stations and government buildings occupied by al-Sadr supporters. Actually, on TV it all looks rather good. It reminds me of the mid-80s in South Africa. Watching crowds of AK-wielding zealots always stirs the armchair warrior in me. In the context of the violence confronting them, these Iraqi resistance fighters epitomize Democracy in Action. The Yanks say "Yes" with big guns; and Iraqis say "No" with big bombs. I prefer hyenas myself but, either way, it's a win-win situation. Blackwater Democracy has arrived. Like Victoria's Secret. Gad, imagine coming home to a couple of these after a hard day on the battlefield. Bremer should pack his bags tonight and catch the early morning flight to Tel Aviv; leaving the troops behind to be slaughtered, of course. Democracy must, when all is said, done, signed, sealed and delivered by June 30, be sustainable.

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The Thousand-Yard Stare

Now, we Kossacks support the troops, and I knew that this was not the place for politics. These soldiers are pawns, and of course they do not set policy. As much as I wanted them to get drunk and bash their Commander-in-Chief, I just couldn't disrespect them like that. Throughout the course of the night, I'd find myself chatting with each of them. I'd offer my hand and thank them for their service. I'd ask them what it was like over there (a unanimous "fucked up") and then I'd wish them luck. Now, you can say that they asked for it. You can say that no one forced them to join. But really, those recruiting commercials make it look pretty fun for your average hormone-addled boy, and when they hand you your diploma and a bowl of soup at commencement, you've gotta start thinking about all of your options. By the time last call was signaled by the flashing lights, I'd heard some pretty scary shit. I'd also come to know them well enough that they no longer averted their eyes as though afraid I'd come upon a dark secret. Now they looked at me. Or, well... through me, somewhat. I thought of the stories I'd read about Viet Nam, and I thought about the thousand-yard stare. I don't know if this was the same look or not, but I can tell you this for sure, something inside of each of them was very, very dead. Something was taken away... forever. They suddenly didn't look so very young anymore, though for the life of me, I couldn't picture them carrying rifles as they walked the streets of Baghdad. It may have been the beer talking, or maybe I thought they might get some very minor, fleeting satisfaction from it, but as we shook hands one last time, I told them that they had done some good over there. This was met with spontaneous laughter, and their leader shook his head and told me that no one had done any good over there... that nothing good had happened... that it was all bad. I tried to smile along with them, but couldn't, so I wished them luck. "Thanks," he added. "We're gonna need it, 'cause we're going back in four months." Good luck, guys.

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