More links. I can't say how terrible this is for the Iraqis and our soldiers.

US occupation of Iraq: the last act?
by Helena Cobban

The director of the main hospital in Fallujah is reporting that 450 Iraqis have been killed there during this week's fighting, and more than 1,000 wounded. If this is anywhere close to an accurate tally, then one way or another this marks the beginning of the endgame for the US occupation of Iraq. Even if the US forces stopped operations in Fallujah and nationwide right now, these kinds of losses inflicted on the indigenous population mean that the US has lost all its credibility as the governing force in Iraq, as well as much of its ability to dictate the timing and other modalities of its by-now inevitable exit from the country. How many people in the Bush administration have even heard of the Amritsar massacre? The circumstances of that April 1919 atrocity, in which British forces mowed down 400 unarmed Indian protesters on a single day were, I admit, very different. But just as the Amritsar Massacre signaled the beginning of the end of the Brits' "thousand-year Raj" in India, so too does the Fallujah Massacre of April 2004 signal the beginning of the precipitous crumbling of the US occupation of Iraq. History moves a lot faster nowadays than it did in the early 20th century. It took the Brits a further 28 years after Amritsar to bring their colonial rule over India to an end, though after that fateful day the writing was very evidently on the wall for them. At the rate the US military is currently going, I doubt that its presence in Iraq will last even a further 28 weeks. One way or another, the Fallujah Massacre will certainly be in every history book in every Muslim country from here on out.

[more]

Steve Gillard has a great post. The page link doesn't work so well so scroll to the post heading if he has posted something else. Or, just read it all. He's good.

Friday, April 09, 2004

The sad fact about Iraq is that no one gets the scale of the tragedy. Not only are the theocrats going to win, but the scale of killing is vast. Over 40 Americans and 300 Iraqis have been killed in fighting. There is this arrogant idea that all the US has to do is kill enough people and the resistance will end. Dan Barlett, the White House spokesman making the rounds of the morning shows, said "we're fighting evil". When I heard that, my mouth fell open. Hasn't anyone in the White House noticed most Iraqis are on the fence, and many more have decided to oppose the occupation. They are not supporting us. They are not taking our side, except when we pay them. There isn't one pro-american group native to Iraq. No one cares about Chalabi's henchmen. I heard a Lt. Col say "we're winning every firefight." So? Why are you in firefights? Why are people killing your Marines? Doesn't that speak of a massive policy failure. Now, I know he has to win a battle, but the idea that we're fighting in Iraq is insane. We were supposed to liberate these people, not have them turn on us. [...] The US started a fight with people who don't quit. CENTCOM says "we control Iraq", well no, you don't and can't. So what if you took back Kut, the Al Mahdi boys just went home. They will be back. Maybe at night, when a convoy comes by. Maybe on the rail lines. They may back down from gun battles in the street, but we've just started the Shia insurgency. Shias have always opposed Americans, some joined the insurgency from day one. Now, the masses are deciding it's time to kick the Americans out. What amazes me is that most Americans don't understand a simple point: not since March 21, 2003 have Americans in Iraq not been under fire. There has not been a single day where US troops have not been shot at or attacked in some way in some part of the country. While most Iraqis have sat on the fence, there have always been enough who so resented the occupation, they have sought to kill Americans and those who collaborated with them.

[more]

Knowing the enemy
Wounded U.S. soldiers give an inside look at the Iraq insurgency

Countering the insurgency, Stayskal said, has been difficult for Marines on the ground. In his case, his unit was chronically short of ammunition, and his support unit got pinned down at the same time across town. The two units couldn't help each other. "They weren't giving us nearly enough ammunition for the situations out there. Everyone was running out. Everyone was grabbing each other's ammunition." [...] Lance Cpl.Miguel Martinez said the precision of the enemy clearly showed the insurgency was not launched by "civilians or anything like that." "We don't really know who our enemy is," the 21-year-old from Simi Valley, Calif., said. "The only way we know to shoot them is they have an AK-47 and they pretty much point it at us."

[more]

They're running out of ammunition?! They don't know who they're fighting? It gets worse. I missed this in my earlier post of Juan Cole...

Fighting Rages in Fallujah, Najaf, Karbala; 6 US Troops Dead, Hundreds of Iraqis

In a CNN interview retired General Barry MacCaffrey said that the task of the US is to regain control of Baghdad and restore its lines of communication in the South. He gave away a great deal. One may conclude that a) the US has lost control of Baghdad and b) the US communications and supply lines in the South have been cut. That is, a year after the fall of Saddam, the US faces the task of reconquering the country.

[more]

The supply lines are cut?! I hope and hope that my pessimistic vision doesn't come true. As bad as I think it is, I keep finding out it's worse.

At the Sharp Edge

We just got back on base. For a while there, I didn’t think that would happen. We got ambushed yesterday, except it was a twenty-one hour ambush. At about four AM the other day, the coalition force rode out the gate and took back the town. At nine thirty we rolled out, arrived at our usual destination, and by ten thirty, we were under fire. We were in a compound of five or six major buildings, large enough to be hotels, not quite large enough to be palaces, that had once been owned by Chemical Ali. We started out on the roofs, looking for snipers. But RPGs and mortar fire forced us down and as we retreated, the shooters started hitting the building more often because they were walking their weapons closer. Eventually, our safe area was reduced to just one hallway in a central building. I have never been so scared in my life. Scared doesn’t cover it: terrified doesn’t, either. I'd never known it was possible to be terrified and be totally calm. I’d look around, seeing the trails of weapons, seeing the F-16s overhead---they never dropped bombs, they just flew around------and then look down and see the chameleons running in the grass. And then you’d hear the thump of another mortar round, but you don’t really hear those---you feel them, somehow. They’re loud enough to make you flinch, and these were all close----I saw one land in front of me at about three thirty AM, no more than fifty meters away. My captain didn’t know I heard him say what he just said. “Honestly, last night, I think every one of us thought that was it, that we weren’t going to make it back. It was that bad.”

[more]

Experts, officials concerned about growing violence, unrest in Iraq

Meanwhile, intelligence experts outside government caution that the U.S. has much work to do to regain control of the security situation and prevent a widespread rebellion. Milt Bearden, who retired after 30 years with the CIA's directorate of operations, notes that in the last 100 years any insurgency that has taken on a nationalist character -- for instance, a shared goal of getting rid of Americans -- has succeeded. Other former intelligence officials familiar with the region caution that outside Shiite groups, acting more covertly than the Sadr militia, could prove to be formidable problems. Bob Baer, a former CIA officer who spent 21 years in the Middle East, said he met with Islamic fighters in Lebanon just before the U.S. invasion of Iraq who told him they were preparing to fight a long-term war with the West in Iraq. They included members of Hezbollah and Hamas, he said. Baer said the resistance groups warned then that a Shiite uprising in Iraq would come in April, and promised kidnappings and bombings in southern Iraq. Then, he dismissed the timing, but "it indeed happened in April." "I think we are facing the possibility of a Shiite insurrection," said Baer, who has been critical of the U.S. government since he left the agency in 1997. "Muhab al-Sadr is the tip of the iceberg in terms of the Shiite."

[more]

Bring them on, indeed.