It's hard at this point for an outsider to judge how big of a military problem the Iraq intifada poses for the Coalition -- and I'm not sure the Centcom insiders know either. Politically, however, the situation appears to be have gone from bad to disastrous to downright catastrophic. And, as predicted, the effort to solve the military problem is only making the political problem worse.
Recent reports on the military situation paint a mixed picture. Insurgents are active on the western outskirts of Baghdad, and blew up a fuel convoy by the airport today. Agency France Presse reports that Coalition forces have abandoned the Shi'ite slums of Sadr City -- essentially handing control back to the Mahdi Army.
On the plus side (from a Coalition point of view, I mean) Centcom claims it has recaptured the city of Kut, which was abandoned by its Ukranian overseers on Wednesday. And it has reportedly has sent helicopter gunships to the aid of the Bulgarian garrison in Karbala, which is largely under the control of the Sadrists. Who controls what in the city of Nasiriya (scene of a particularly nasty battle between the Marines and Saddam's feyadeen last year) is unclear, but fighting is reported to be "light." Basra seems to be quiet.
But Centcom's biggest worry appears to be logistical, as one of the ubiquitous TV generals told the New York Times yesterday:
“We absolutely must regain control of Baghdad and open the lines of communication to the south, to Kuwait and down to the sea, or the position will become untenable,” said Barry McCaffrey, a retired four-star general and the commander of the 24th Mechanized Division in the Persian Gulf War in 1991. “We have got to get back the road through Najaf and through Al Kut, and Rick Sanchez has the combat power to do it.”
This has a distinctly deja vu sound to it, given that an over-extended and easily interdicted supply line was also Centcom's most serious vulnerability during last year's "major combat operations." As long as the Mahdi Army holds Najaf, and remains within striking distance of the alternate road through Kut and Basra, the insurgents would appear to have at least a couple of fingers around the Coalition's windpipe.
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But the clearest sign that the Coalition's political position has crumbled is the nearing collapse of the egregiously mislabeled "Governing Council." Even our puppets -- already almost universally despised by their own people -- can't take the heat any more:
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The collapse of the Governing Council would destroy whatever faint hopes the Bush administration nurses of achieving a purely symbolic transfer of sovereignty to a docile interim government on June 30. There wouldn't be anyone on the other end to catch the hot potato. This, in turn, would make it virtually impossible for the remaining members of the Coalition to remain in Iraq -- except, I suppose, for our ever faithful British poodle dog, Tony Blair. (And I'm not so sure about him, either. Even Jack Straw is finally admitting the magnitude of the calamity.)
The collapse of the Governing Council would also strip away the last remaining buffer between occupiers and the occupied -- leaving the Americans even worse off than the Israelis, who at least have the Palestinian Authority to pick up the garbage for them in their Arab bantustans. The RNC's office on the Tigris would be stuck administering 20 million seething colonial subjects -- indefinitely. At which point Centcom might well rename the Green Zone "Fort Apache."
More to the point: If Centcom and/or the Pentagon does insist on putting military objectives first -- as it has in Fallujah -- will anyone in the administration have the power, or the will, to overrule them?
Probably not, which is why the events of the past week have probably doomed whatever slender chance existed for stabilizing Iraq in the post-June 30 period. It looks like the Coalition is on a countdown to political failure. And political failure will eventually mean military failure as well, since it's hard to see how public support for an indefinite occupation can be maintained indefinitely.
The only remaining question, it seems, is how much more blood will have to be spilled -- in Iraq, and maybe in America as well -- before the price of that failure has been paid in full.
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