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BBC openly speculates about withdrawl from Iraq while Oil hits a 13 year high.
These events are at a nexus - the last time oil was at these prices, the world waited for war against Saddam. The quest to open Iraq's oil market is the deciding geopolitical factor, regardless of the slogans, involved in events as they unfold. Every leader is asking only one question: "How can I arrange this on the most favorable terms to my nation?"
In the US, the road to failure is already laid out, the question is when, not if, Greenspan must raise interest rates to squeeze out energy inflation, which is now causing general inflation in the US - which ran at an annualized rate of 6.1% last month. The UK had hoped to join the alliance, and be able to restrain the flood of oil, because the UK's economy relies on a high, but not too high, price. The Saudi's meanwhile, having played the waiting game, are caught. On one hand they want oil higher for their own purposes, on the other hand, Iraq is now a cauldron, which means that there must be a flood of currency into Iraq to quiet the unease.
That the unease is growing can be traced from the uptick in bombings in Baghdad, attacks on US service personnel in Najaf, and the more or less surrender of Fallujah to Saddamist elements. If 1000 fighters - the US's current estimate, itself too low by at least 2000 - can stand off 2500 heavily armed Marines backed by air power, then the US is defeated indeed.
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