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  Tuesday  March 15  2005    11: 33 AM

lebanon

Helena Cobban lived in Lebanon during the civil war. She knows Lebanon.

Lebanese prospects


Today is the one-month commemoration of Rafiq Hariri's killing. The organizers of the (heavily anti-Syrian) "We want an investigation into the killing!" movement have been organizing a demonstration today, and according to early press reports have been able to pull together a crowd in Beirut that may equal that pulled together by Hizbullah last Tuesday...

In such a highly-charged situation it's extremely hard to find reporting, including on the estimated size of demonstrations, that is objective enough to rely on. (The BBC's website was particularly unhelpful on the size and nature of Hizbullah's March 8 demonstration--though the BBC World News t.v. feed was pretty good on it. Here's the latest BBC website report on today's pro-investigation event.)

My present conclusions from the events of the past month in Lebanon-- and from my conversations there last fall, and my preceding 30 years of study of and life within the country-- are the following:

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