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In the last two to three years Russia has been on a geopolitical offensive in the countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union. It has been gradually regaining the ground lost in the aftermath of the American invasion of Afghanistan and the Georgian, Ukrainian and Kyrgyz revolutions.
Central Asia
The first major victory for Russia came in Tajikistan in 2004. The country was drifting towards the West following the ouster of the Taliban from neighboring Afghanistan. Moscow worked vigorously to bring the nation back under its sway. The Kremlin repeatedly threatened the Tajik government of Imomali Rakhmonov with the expulsion of one million Tajik workers from Russia, while offering debt relief for the return to Moscow’s orbit. In October of 2004 Russian President Putin and Tajik leader Rakhmonov signed an agreement. Russia agreed to let Tajik laborers remain in Russia and forgave the country $240 million of its $300 million debt. In exchange Moscow established its permanent military presence in Tajikistan, with 5,000 thousand Russian troops deployed in the southern cities of Kulab and Kurgan-Tyube, in close proximity to NATO controlled Afghanistan. The Kremlin also secured a 49-year lease on an anti-Missile warning system at Nurek. In addition, Russian companies have been awarded controlling packages in Tajikistan’s major hydroelectric and gas energy projects, as well as in other sectors of the country’s economy. Surprisingly, at that time, many Western observers and policy makers did not see this as the beginning of Russia’s geopolitical counterattack, nor did they see it posing a major threat to Western interests in Central Asia.
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