Jim Kunstler went to the Peak Oil in Houston.

Peak Universe

The big Peak Oil conference of the year took place in Houston last week – but before we get to the substance of that, a few words about where we were. It is hard to imagine a more horrifying urban construct than this anti-city in the malarial swamps just off the Gulf of Mexico. And it is hard to conceive of a more desolate and depressing urban district, even of such an anti-city, than the utter wasteland around Houston’s convention center.

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So did the Oil Drum

Houston ASPO - the Workshop day

Seven am breakfasts in O’Hare are not a habit I plan on developing but there was I, for the second day running, at the same table even at Wolfgang Pucks.. But all in a good cause, as I headed off to Houston for ASPO. Going to the hotel - very new and needed, as the cabby proudly told me,– he asked which Convention I was here for (there is an Olympics meeting of some sort down the hall). I explained about Peak Oil and though initially he had not heard about it, he then mentioned a Houston City Council effort to have the cab companies use hybrids. This is now on hold, since it did not appear to be a well-received suggestion. Concerns that he brought up included the small size of the cars, that they were only 4-cylinder and would not stand the wear that a cab life would impose, and that the cabbies, who have to buy the cabs, could not afford the $3,000 to replace the batteries. Apparently the cab companies had suggested that they would comply right after the police Department bought theirs. Talking at an ASPO break about this, apparently Denver are experimenting with the process, but have only just introduced it with a few cabs., and a quick Google shows that a number of cities have already bitten that bullet.

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ASPO Houston: Day 1, part 1

The atmosphere seemed a little different today, perhaps the influence of more “energy professionals”, investment advisors and professionals made it seem more of a business conference, perhaps the nature of the message that came at us as the papers proceeded were a sobering influence. After the ASPO meeting in Cork I had become a little more worried about the approaching problems, and had, as I noted, begun to see 2009 and 90 mbd as the critical numbers. Today I think I added the first twinge of terror to my emotional lexicon. We talk about it with an academic dispassion, we list the numbers and plot the curves but the numbers that we heard today have an immediacy and an impact that indicate the anonymity with which we exist in many media is perhaps going to change sooner than many of us have anticipated. This was the day of revising numbers, of reviewing past data in light of the changes since last year, and so let me, “start at the beginning” with the first paper of the day.

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Houston ASPO Day 1 part 2

I had left you at the end of my earlier post with George Baker reviewing the situation in Mexico. We have seen Cantarell dramatically decline from the point that it was providing more oil than Mexico exported to the United States, to the current position where it produces significantly less. I asked George later about whether, given the choice between reneging on their contracts, and dropping internal use, which they would select. In contrast to Westexas views that countries will always look out for the internal demands first, he expected that they would fulfill their contracts. He was also curious as to why Pemex had installed an FPSO at the Ku Maloob Zaap field, since there is existing infrastructure that should have handled all the product. Mexican deepwater production is likely to come on in 2013, but the issue of cross-border fields has not been addressed.

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Houston ASPO Day 2 part 1

This is the fourth segment on the ASPO Conference and follows a report on the Workshop day, the first morning report, and the rest of Thursday. We pick up on Friday morning, which began with a talk by Peter Tertzakian on the impact of resource constraints. He began by showing the rate at which the electric light was adopted into American homes, noting that essentially 100% was not reached until the 1980’s from inception in 1890. Initially the rate of change was very slow. To make a change there has to be a compelling alternative at a cheaper price, and yet as energy consumption has grown there has been a pattern. First the economy grows, then pressure starts to build up, then there is a breaking point, with the introduction of “a magic bullet”, and the cycle restarts. We have reached a point where the cycle has reached the breaking point – and now we look for the magic bullet. He pointed out that this occurred early in Japan in the 1970’s, and that they made the switch and by adding LNG and nuclear they have been able to stabilize oil consumption.

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Houston ASPO Day 2 part 2

We rejoin the meeting just as we sat down to lunch, and a talk by Houston Mayor Bill White who has the enviable distinction of having Matt Simmons as the Treasurer of his Campaign Committee. He acknowledged Matt as a prophet (with all that usually brings). He sees the current situation as one that comes down to a race between depletion and technology. It is not possible to give a political speech and create more oil fields. It is not possible by giving a political speech to create a hydrogen economy either immediately or in the practical future. It is not possible by giving a political speech to over-ride the laws of physics.

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ASPO Houston - a comment

I went to my usual Rotary Club meeting this morning, and one of my co-members asked where I was last week. “At a Peak Oil meeting in Houston,” I said. “What’s that?” this well-educated and generally well-informed lady asked me. To me this encapsulates the problem, not the problem we have, the problem that the general public has. They have no idea of either the size, or the immediacy of the problems that are now almost upon us. Debbie Cook and others this past week talked about the need to get administrative and legislative attention, but to tie it to some coming energy event. We talked with some dispassion about when this event might occur, and were encouraged to dream of some bucolic Houston, having survived the deluge. I don’t think that this is the way it is going to be.

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Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study
· Output peaked in 2006 and will fall by several a year
· Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

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